Spot container rates from Asia are showing diverging trends. The Transpacific trade continues to plunge, while the Asia-Europe trade is being pushed higher by new FAK rate hikes, just on the eve of contract negotiation season.
Spot container freight rates from Asia have shown a sharp divergence this week between the two major markets of North America and Europe. On the Transpacific, rates have resumed their downward trajectory after a brief spike last week, while Asia-Europe rates are being pushed higher by carriers.
Asia-North America: The Downturn Resumes
Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) this week closely followed the trend of last week’s Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), registering sharp declines:
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- The WCI’s Shanghai to Los Angeles leg fell 12% from last week to $2,328 per FEU (40ft container).
- The WCI’s Shanghai to New York leg dropped 15%, ending at $3,254 per FEU.
And if the SCFI continues to act as a “forward curve” for the WCI, the situation could be even worse for the carriers. The SCFI published today (Nov. 14) shows:
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- The Shanghai to US West Coast leg fell another 18% from last week to $1,853 per FEU.
- The Shanghai to US East Coast leg recorded a 9% drop, down to $2,600 per FEU.
These rates are also echoed by data released by US freight forwarder True Facts, which reported that China-US West Coast rates are hovering around $1,700-$1,750 per FEU, while China-US East Coast rates have slid to around $2,500-$2,700.
The forwarder added: “The gap reported last week between ‘special’ rates being issued to freight forwarders from carriers, and the carriers’ ‘fixed’ advertised rate, continued to shrink. Week to week there is now only about a $100 difference between special and advertised USWC and USEC rates.”
“Right now we’re expecting container rates to continue to fall, with USWC and USEC edging toward September-like levels, if bookings remain tepid.”
“A temporary December GRI attempt is possible, but without stronger liftings it would likely be short-lived,” the company concluded.
Several carriers have now scheduled a Transpacific GRI for December 1, with increases ranging from $1,000-$3,000 per FEU, depending on the carrier.
Rates on the Transatlantic (from Europe to the US) are also weakening, falling 2% this past week to $1,633 per FEU. This is about 25% lower than the “historical” market rate (around $2,000) and is one of the lowest levels seen since the second half of 2023.
Asia-Europe: Surging on a FAK “Push”
In sharp contrast, spot rates on the Asia-Europe trade lanes continued to strengthen, fueled by a series of new FAK (Freight All Kinds) rate hikes.
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- The WCI’s Shanghai to Rotterdam leg rose 3% this week to $2,059 per FEU – crossing the $2,000 mark for the first time since early September.
- The WCI’s Shanghai to Genoa leg increased 4%, finishing at $2,193 per FEU.
Drewry noted: “Carriers on the Asia-Europe trade route are trying to push spot rates up by introducing higher FAK rates, ranging from $3,000 to $3,650 per 40ft box, effective 15 November, in an attempt to elevate spot rates before the start of the new annual contract negotiation season.”
These efforts are likely to continue into next month. MSC yesterday announced a new FAK rate for the Asia-Europe trade, to be applied from December 1, and is seeking to apply rates of $3,100 per FEU to North European ports – equivalent to a 50% rate hike over a two-week period – and $3,950 to the West Mediterranean.
If successful, that move would nearly double the current Asia-Mediterranean spot rate.
Source: Phaata.com (According to TheLoadStar)
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