{"id":96155,"date":"2020-11-10T21:58:28","date_gmt":"2020-11-10T14:58:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advantage.vn\/tieng-viet-chien-thang-cua-joe-biden-va-tiem-nang-cua-vaccine-covid-se-anh-huong-the-nao-den-van-tai-duong-bien\/"},"modified":"2022-08-20T15:16:47","modified_gmt":"2022-08-20T08:16:47","slug":"how-vaccine-and-biden-victory-will-impact-shipping","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advantage.vn\/en\/how-vaccine-and-biden-victory-will-impact-shipping\/","title":{"rendered":"How Vaccine And Biden Victory Will Impact Shipping?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The stock market soared on Monday in the wake of President-elect Joe Biden\u2019s victory and Pfizer\u2019s vaccine announcement. Both news bombshells will affect ocean shipping – with myriad consequences for the container and tanker sectors. The market puzzle is getting even more complicated.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Worst-case stimulus scenario for containers<\/span><\/h2>\n

Federal stimulus has had an enormous effect on consumer spending power, and consequently, containerized imports. According to analysts at Evercore ISI, the best-case scenario from a stimulus perspective would have been an intermediate Q4 stimulus by the lame-duck President Donald Trump and Congress, followed by a massive Q1 stimulus by Biden and a Democratic House and Senate.<\/span><\/p>\n

The worst-case stimulus scenario appears to be taking shape. No Q4 stimulus and a smaller Q1 package with Biden and the Democratic House constrained by a Republican Senate.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u201cA big [Q1] stimulus package is likely off the table,\u201d said Jefferies Chief Economist Aneta Markowska. \u201cWe expected a \u2018skinny\u2019 bill of roughly $500 billion with 2021 [GDP] growth averaging 4% versus $3 trillion-plus [stimulus] and 5.5% GDP growth under a blue-wave scenario.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

As for Q4, Bloomberg reported that Democrats have incentive to wait for the two runoffs that will decide the Senate balance of power. Furthermore, Trump has little incentive and no political capital to push for a deal before leaving office, said Bloomberg.<\/span><\/p>\n

With no new stimulus until 2021, the container sector could see some of the froth taken off demand. But as Stifel analyst Ben Nolan pointed out, \u201cThe container market is red-hot. So, even a little softening is unlikely to be devastatiing.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Vaccine a mixed bag for containers<\/span><\/h2>\n

Pfizer plans to manufacture the vaccine in the U.S. for domestic recipients and in Europe for non-U.S. recipients. To the extent that nondomestic vaccine distribution (whether the Pfizer vaccine or another vaccine) takes up air-cargo space, it will push more cargo into ocean transport. That would be a plus for liner demand.<\/span><\/p>\n

But there\u2019s a caveat. Analysts believe a shift in U.S. spending is driving record container volumes in the trans-Pacific market. Consumers are buying more goods as they spend less on travel, restaurants, bars and movie theaters.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Stifel analyst Ben Nolan (Photo: Chris Preovolos\/Marine Money)<\/p>\n

When vaccines return the world to normalcy, consumers will reallocate more spending to services. In addition, a resumption of passenger air travel will increase capacity for air cargo. That would shift some cargo back from ocean to air.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to Nolan, \u201cThe container market would be negatively impacted over time as more discretionary income is spent on services than goods and belly space on passenger airplanes becomes more readily available.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

He said that Matson (NYSE: MATX) is \u201cmost at risk,\u201d because its expedited China-U.S. ocean service \u201chas been the biggest winner from the lack of passenger airplane belly space and the increased spending on goods in the U.S.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Stock investors don\u2019t appear to see this risk yet. Matson\u2019s stock rose 6% on Monday.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jet fuel upside for tanker demand<\/span><\/p>\n

Reduced jet-fuel demand has hit both crude and product tankers hard. At last month\u2019s virtual Capital Link New York Martime Forum, Ridgebury Tankers CEO Bob Burke said, \u201cEveryone has experienced an 8% decline in demand, and if you ask why, there\u2019s one answer: airlines.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

According to Nolan, \u201cRefined product tankers with high leverage should benefit [from the vaccine\u2019s positive effect on air travel] as they have been oversold on the opaque outlook for the recovery.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

On Monday, the stock of product-carrier owner Ardmore Shipping (NYSE: ASC) rose 15% and shares of Scorpio Tankers (NYSE: STNG) rose 14%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Among owners of both crude and product tankers, Diamond S Shipping (NYSE: DSSI) rose 13%, Frontline (NYSE: FRO) and Teekay Tankers (NYSE: TNK) rose 10%, and International Seaways (NYSE: INSW) gained 8%.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the pure crude-tanker segment, Nordic American Tankers (NYSE: NAT) rose 8%, Euronav (NYSE: EURN) 4% and DHT (NYSE: DHT) 3%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Biden policies and tanker demand<\/span><\/p>\n

Analysts generally view Biden\u2019s presidency as negative for tankers, given increased regulation of the U.S. energy complex and constrained drilling on federal lands and offshore versus a Trump administration.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, if the Senate remains under Republican control, Biden\u2019s effect on U.S. energy production would be curtailed.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to Clarksons Platou Securities, \u201cIf Republicans maintain the majority in the Senate, this could prevent drastic policy changes.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Hugo de Stoop, CEO of crude-tanker owner Euronav, said on the latest quarterly call, \u201cGiven that [Republicans are likely to control the Senate], I think that we\u2019re not going to have a revolution. I think we\u2019re going to have an evolution.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Biden is expected to lift sanctions on Iran if the country complies with the nuclear deal. According to Argus Media, this would likely increase Iranian output and allow the country to sell more of its inventory.<\/span><\/p>\n

More Iranian crude would complicate decisions on OPEC+ coalition production cuts. In addition, a Reuters article reported that Trump\u2019s pressure on both Russia and Saudi Arabia was an important factor in the original OPEC+ deal. Biden is more adversarial than Trump toward both countries. Sources told Reuters that there\u2019s a heightened chance of a breakdown in relations among OPEC+ partners under Biden.<\/span><\/p>\n

If a Republican Senate prevents Biden from implementing policies that curtail U.S. oil exports, Iran increases exports and the OPEC+ production agreement breaks down, that\u2019s good for tankers.<\/span><\/p>\n

On the other hand, if Iran exports more and OPEC+ stays together and reduces production to compensate for Iran, that\u2019s bad for tankers.<\/span><\/p>\n

Clarksons explained, \u201cMore Iranian oil production would be carried by Iran\u2019s domestic fleet. To balance the oil market, OPEC and Saudi Arabia would likely be forced to cut their production, which is more reliant on the international fleet of tankers.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Biden and trade relations<\/span><\/h2>\n

The trade war under Trump has been extremely negative for shipping stock sentiment. It has been a headwind for U.S. exports of oil, liquefied gas and agribulk. \u201cBiden\u2019s promise to end trade wars should be good news for shipping,\u201d said Clarksons.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Biden is expected to be friendlier to European trade than Trump – a positive for future trans-Atlantic container flows \u2014 but not toward China.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to Jefferies analyst David Kerstens, \u201cTrade policy under Biden will likely become more consistent, but tariffs are unlikely to be abolished in the near term. Trade policy under Biden could try to involve other partners, such as the EU and Japan, in a coalition against China. [But] anti-China sentiment might be the only thing Democrats and Republicans have in common.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Vaccine effect on fuel spread<\/span><\/p>\n

Yet another consequence of the latest news involves marine fuel.<\/span><\/p>\n

In late 2019 and early 2020, there was enormous focus on IMO 2020. That rule requires ships to burn more expensive 0.5% sulfur fuel known as very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO). Ships with exhaust-gas scrubbers can continue to burn cheaper 3.5% sulfur heavy fuel oil (HFO).<\/span><\/p>\n

Investments in scrubbers have been very slow to pay off because the VLSFO-HFO spread shrank in the wake of COVID. One big reason it shrank was loss of jet-fuel demand.<\/span><\/p>\n

Richard Joswick, head of oil pricing, refining and trade flow analysis at S&P Global Platts, explained in an interview with Freight Waves in September that COVID \u201creduced refinery runs because demand for jet fuel was really down \u2026 so, when refineries cut back, they made less high-sulfur fuel. As a result, they had more than enough capabilities to destroy that high-sulfur fuel [to produce refined products].\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

That kept HFO prices higher than expected. At the same time, the loss of jet-fuel demand was a headwind for VLSFO pricing. \u201cFor every barrel of jet fuel you have to get rid of, around 70% winds up going towards diesel. Of the amount going towards diesel, some components get pushed down towards VLSFO,\u201d explained Joswick.<\/span><\/p>\n

He predicted that the VLSFO-HFO spread would ultimately widen and \u201cthe question is how quickly the airlines recover.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The sooner there\u2019s a vaccine, the quicker airlines recover. The sooner airlines recover, the quicker scrubbers could start to pay off more.<\/span><\/p>\n

Source: www.freightwaves.com<\/span><\/p>\n

[:]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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