{"id":101106,"date":"2023-10-29T15:14:25","date_gmt":"2023-10-29T08:14:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advantage.vn\/?p=101106"},"modified":"2023-11-06T15:53:05","modified_gmt":"2023-11-06T08:53:05","slug":"cosco-and-ccic-south-america-ink-strategic-cooperation-deal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advantage.vn\/en\/cosco-and-ccic-south-america-ink-strategic-cooperation-deal\/","title":{"rendered":"Container trade less of a GDP indicator these days"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alphaliner’s report said that container trade is decoupling from gross domestic product, as the TEU-to-GDP multiplier has continued to weaken since the pandemic, with the last 10 years now showing an average multiplier below 1.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The ratio, which peaked in the 1990s and was still a robust 2.6x in the 2000s, had previously been a reliable indicator for the market, such that container trade could be relied on to expand by multiples of GDP growth.<\/p>\n

This has changed and the average ratio of container-trade growth to world economic growth in the last decade has dropped to 0.93x, with only the individual years of 2014, 2017 and 2018 exceeding 1 by a significant margin (1.4x, 1.8x and 1.4x respectively).<\/p>\n

\"Containertrade<\/p>\n

In October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that world GDP would grow 3% in 2023 and a lower 2.9% in 2024, which are below the 3.5% recorded for 2022 when shipping volumes rose by 0.1%, underlining the increasing disconnect between GDP and the box trade.<\/p>\n

Notwithstanding the record newbuilding deliveries in the next two years, prospects for growth in the next 18 months appear modest.<\/p>\n

Container volumes for the world\u2019s 30 busiest ports fell an estimated 1% in the first six months of 2023, as consumers cut back on spending amid rising inflation.<\/p>\n

While China\u2019s coastal ports reported a 4.1% increase in traffic, throughput at key European ports such as Rotterdam and Hamburg is now below 2019 levels, as are the combined volumes for US ports Los Angeles\/Long Beach, New York\/New Jersey and Savannah.<\/p>\n

container-news.com<\/p>\n

>> Other news:\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n